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Resilience and Realignment of Global Trade

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  • Otaviano Canuto

Abstract

Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. However, a partial realignment seems to be underway, reflecting the more durable side of those recent shocks. This is probably leading to higher costs and prices on the margin, in the case of realignments done to overcome shocks of a geopolitical nature. The answer seems to be that global trade has been resilient, although it is undergoing some realignment.

Suggested Citation

  • Otaviano Canuto, 2023. "Resilience and Realignment of Global Trade," Policy notes & Policy briefs 2027, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb44-23
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    File URL: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2023-11/PB_44_23%20%28Otaviano%20Canuto%29.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Otaviano Canuto, 2023. "A Tale of Two Technology Wars: Semiconductors and Clean Energy," Policy notes & Policy briefs 2025, Policy Center for the New South.
    2. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2023. "Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade," IMF Working Papers 2023/225, International Monetary Fund.
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