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The 2025 Long-term Fiscal Model: Main features and changes

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Abstract

The Analytical Note "The 2025 Long-term Fiscal Model: Main features and changes" describes the Long-term Fiscal Model (LTFM) used to provide the projected data behind some of the graphs and tables that appeared in He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025, the 2025 Long-term Fiscal Statement. There is a particular focus on the changes to the model since its predecessor, the 2021 LTFM, was produced and the reasons behind these changes. Included in the analysis are descriptions of the main contributors to the increasing path of public debt relative to GDP that has been a feature, to varying degrees, of every LTFM used in the six Long-term Fiscal Statements produced to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Matt Bell, 2026. "The 2025 Long-term Fiscal Model: Main features and changes," Treasury Analytical Notes Series an26/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztans:an26/01
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    File URL: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-01/an26-01.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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