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The Seasonal Cycle in the UK economy

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Abstract

In the 1980s research on the fluctuations of economic variables focused mainly on the business cycle, but an older tradition investigated also the seasonality of economic activity. More recently, seasonal modelling has become again an active area of research. In this paper seasonal patterns in the UK economy are analysed using a variety of statistical techniques. Seasonal fluctuations are shown to have many features in common with business cycle fluctuations. A model is estimated which attributes seasonality mainly to the spending preferences of households and firms, and not for example to changes in temperature or other seasonal changes in the weather. Contact NIESR if copy required

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 1993. "The Seasonal Cycle in the UK economy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 32, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:32
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