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Output expectations, uncertainty and the UK business cycle; Evidence from the CBI's suite of business surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Lee
  • Michael Mahony
  • Paul Mizen

Abstract

Novel methods are used to produce quantitative measures of output expectations and output uncertainties in the UK based on the information provided by the CBI business surveys since 2000. These are employed alongside actual output data in an analysis of the source of innovations and propagation mechanisms underlying output dynamics. The coverage of the surveys (conducted separately for the manufacturing, distributive trade and service sectors) and the sample length (covering the periods before and after the Financial Crisis and through the Brexit period) means the analysis provides a compelling characterisation of UK business cycle experiences over the last twenty years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Lee & Michael Mahony & Paul Mizen, 2020. "Output expectations, uncertainty and the UK business cycle; Evidence from the CBI's suite of business surveys," Discussion Papers 2020/12, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:2020/12
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    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/news/papers/2020/2012.aspx
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    Keywords

    business cycles; survey data; expectations; uncertainty;
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