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Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds: a comment on Cummins et al. (AER, 2006)

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  • Robert E. Carpenter
  • Alessandra Guariglia

Abstract

Cummins et al. (2006) construct a new measure of fundamentals, and show that the positive cash flow effects typically found in investment-Q models disappear when traditional Q is replaced with their new measure. Their results are not robust to small changes in their specification or in the dataset used to estimate their model. The explanatory power of cash flow does not disappear when replacing traditional Q with their new measure of Q; it is never there to begin with. Investment’s lack of sensitivity to cash flow may be because their data is biased towards firms with positive cash flow (it is negative for only 242 observations of 11431). This bias and our results mute their argument that the positive cash-flow effects obtained in such models may reflect a failure to control properly for fundamentals rather than the presence of financial constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Carpenter & Alessandra Guariglia, "undated". "Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds: a comment on Cummins et al. (AER, 2006)," Discussion Papers 07/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  • Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:07/11
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    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/documents/papers/07-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
    2. Vlieghe, Gertjan & Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed, 2003. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 212, Royal Economic Society.
    3. Cleary, Sean & Povel, Paul & Raith, Michael, 2007. "The U-Shaped Investment Curve: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 1-39, March.
    4. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
    5. Sean Cleary, 1999. "The Relationship between Firm Investment and Financial Status," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 673-692, April.
    6. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    7. Somnath Das & Re-Jin Guo & Huai Zhang, 2006. "Analysts' Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1159-1185, June.
    8. Huntley Schaller, 1993. "Asymmetric Information, Liquidity Constraints and Canadian Investment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 552-574, August.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    10. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Cash flow; Financial constraints.;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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