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An Analysis of Early Warning Signals of Currency Crises in Turkey, 1986-2004


  • Aykut Kibritçioğlu

    () (Ankara University)


Within a signals approach framework à la Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart, this paper aims both to detect the early warning signals of currency crises in Turkey and to discuss the reliability of an early warning system for this country. To determine major leading indicators of currency crises in Turkey, more than 45 variables are tested, and by using the most relevant 15 variables, a composite index is constructed to estimate the probabilities of currency crises in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Aykut Kibritçioğlu, 2004. "An Analysis of Early Warning Signals of Currency Crises in Turkey, 1986-2004," International Finance kibritcioglu_aykut.62178-, Socionet.
  • Handle: RePEc:nos:wuwpif:kibritcioglu_aykut.62178-iks-ak-001

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    Currency crises; signals approach; early warning system; real exchange rate misalignment; foreign trade; Turkish economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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