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Co-evolution of public transport access and ridership

Author

Listed:
  • Hema Rayaprolu
  • David Levinson

    (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)

Abstract

While transport infrastructure and travel demand are known to be correlated, their causal relationship has not been systematically studied. Using Granger causality tests (previously applied to transport vs. economic growth, and land use vs. transport), this research examines the co-evolution of public transport access and ridership in Greater Sydney over more than a century (from 1855 onward). The authors hypothesize a mutual feedback between transit ridership and access, which is confirmed in all models estimated-between aggregate transit ridership and access, station-level ridership and access, and local (mesh-block) transit mode share and access. The causal link is more evident in disaggregate models, and stronger between ridership and job access than between ridership and population access (when employment data are available). This is the first longitudinal study of the causal relationship between transit access and ridership. The findings strengthen the case for using access as a planning measure and lay groundwork for evolutionary strategic transport modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Hema Rayaprolu & David Levinson, 2024. "Co-evolution of public transport access and ridership," Working Papers transportist-2024-coevolu, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:transportist-2024-coevolution-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103844
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    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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