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Testing Pedestrian Flow and Delay Estimation from First-Actuation Latency

Author

Listed:
  • David Levinson

    (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)

Abstract

Traffic signal controllers timestamp the first pedestrian actuation that requests service, but they do not count the people arriving before the Walk indication. We test a theory-based estimator that treats the time from flashing-don't-walk onset to first actuation as a censored waiting-time observation from a Poisson arrival-event process. The inferred event count and delay are calibrated separately to observed pedestrian counts and observed delay. Fourteen manually observed cases give mean adjustments of 2.202 for counts and 2.176 for delay assuming 100% compliance. A separate 24-leg-session video dataset gives 2.203 and 2.233. Held-out count errors are 23.9% and 22.4%. Observed behavior reduces delay from 16.606 to 15.996 pedestrian-hours in the manual data and from 12.934 to 8.522 hours in video.

Suggested Citation

  • David Levinson, 2026. "Testing Pedestrian Flow and Delay Estimation from First-Actuation Latency," Working Papers paper-2026-21, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-21
    DOI: 10.32866/001c.166369
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    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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