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How Pervasive is the Product Cycle? The Empirical Dynamics of American and Japanese Trade Flows

  • Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Andrew K. Rose

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral American and Japanese data disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. Little evidence is found of product-cycle dynamics between 1962 and 1988. Rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) almost always remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3946.

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Date of creation: Jan 1992
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Oxford Economic Papers, 1995.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3946
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-66, April.
  2. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Endogenous Product Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Vernon, Raymond, 1979. "The Product Cycle Hypothesis in a New International Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 255-67, November.
  4. J. Finger, 1975. "A new view of the product cycle theory," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 79-99, March.
  5. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier.
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