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Financing the AI Buildout

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Listed:
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

Artificial intelligence is driving a large expansion in data center capacity, power infrastructure, and specialized computing equipment. We estimate that a 1 GW AI campus costs about $41 billion. A 188 GW U.S. buildout completed by 2032 would require total investment of nearly$9 trillion and amount to annual investment of 3.2 percent of GDP over 2025–2032. As hyperscaler capital expenditures outgrow internal cash flow, financing is shifting toward leases, joint ventures, project debt, private credit, securitization, and special-purpose vehicles. These structures expand funding capacity but also raise asset-level leverage, obscure contingent obligations, and expose investors to tenant concentration, technological obsolescence, execution delays, and uncertain residual values.

Suggested Citation

  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2026. "Financing the AI Buildout," NBER Working Papers 35865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35865
    Note: AP CF EFG PR
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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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