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Fear as a Campaign Tool: Evidence from the 2014 U.S. Ebola Scare

Author

Listed:
  • Filipe R. Campante
  • Emilio Depetris-Chauvin
  • Ruben Durante

Abstract

We study the supply of political communication highlighting perceived threats, using the 2014 Ebola scare as a natural experiment. Analyzing Twitter posts and congressional newsletters from US House and Senate candidates, we find Republicans increased Ebola-related communication, emphasizing negative sentiment and links to immigration. This response was strongest in safe Republican seats, consistent with base signaling. The supply side was active, not reactive: the Republican response did not vary with proximity to diagnosed cases despite concentrated voter anxiety, politician tweets predicted public Ebola activity but not vice-versa, and more intensive messaging correlated with better electoral outcomes, controlling for local conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Filipe R. Campante & Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ruben Durante, 2026. "Fear as a Campaign Tool: Evidence from the 2014 U.S. Ebola Scare," NBER Working Papers 35660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35660
    Note: POL
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

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