Tipping Points and Australia’s Social Media Ban

In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban under-16s from major social media platforms, a policy under consideration in more than a dozen countries. Because individually complying with the ban when others do not comply is socially costly, an easily circumvented ban may work only if compliance crosses a tipping point. Surveying Australian teenagers four months after implementation, we found that fewer than one in three 14–15-year-olds were in compliance with the ban. However, teenagers reported requiring two out of three peers to comply before complying themselves and, in addition, perceived compliers as less popular. These forces predict erosion, and indeed, two months later, compliance had fallen to about one in twenty. Reducing social media use in adolescents likely requires supplementing bans with individual incentives and social norms interventions.