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Climate Politics in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Matilde Bombardini
  • Frederico Finan
  • Nicolas Longuet-Marx
  • Suresh Naidu
  • Francesco Trebbi

Abstract

We study the effects of climate change and mitigation-related employment changes on U.S. politics. We combine 2000-2020 precinct-level voting information and congressional candidate positions on environmental policy with high-resolution temperature, precipitation, and census block-group level measures of “green” and “brown” employment shares. Holding politician positions fixed within a district, we find that Democratic vote shares increase with exogenous changes in local climate and green transition employment. We embed these estimates into a model of political competition, including both direct and demand-driven effects of shocks on candidate supply of climate policy positions. Incorporating these estimates into 2022-2050 projections of climate change and green employment transition, we find that voting for the Democratic Party increases, while both parties move slightly to the right on climate policy. Under worst-case climate projections and current mitigation trajectories, our estimates indicate that the probability the House passes a carbon-pricing bill is 9 percentage points higher in 2050 than in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Matilde Bombardini & Frederico Finan & Nicolas Longuet-Marx & Suresh Naidu & Francesco Trebbi, 2025. "Climate Politics in the United States," NBER Working Papers 34120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34120
    Note: EEE POL
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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