IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/34103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Engineering Ukraine's Wirtschaftswunder

Author

Listed:
  • Ufuk Akcigit
  • Furkan Kilic
  • Somik Lall
  • Solomiya Shpak

Abstract

As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild.

Suggested Citation

  • Ufuk Akcigit & Furkan Kilic & Somik Lall & Solomiya Shpak, 2025. "Engineering Ukraine's Wirtschaftswunder," NBER Working Papers 34103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34103
    Note: EFG PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w34103.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2016. "Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 203-207, May.
    2. Ufuk Akcigit & Harun Alp & André Diegmann & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2023. "Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany," Working Papers 685, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Etienne Lalé, 2019. "Search and Multiple Jobholding," Upjohn Working Papers 19-305, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    3. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2024. "More but not better: Career incentives of local leaders and entrepreneurial entry in China," Working Papers 202417, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    5. Miguel Casares Polo & Hashmat Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2018. "A structural analysis of US entry and exit dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    6. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2017. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Ufuk Akcigit & Salomé Baslandze & Francesca Lotti, 2023. "Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 529-564, March.
    8. Filippo Biondi & Sergio Inferrera & Matthias Mertens & Javier Miranda, 2023. "Declining Business Dynamism in Europe: The Role of Shocks, Market Power, and Technology," Jena Economics Research Papers 2023-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    9. Garcia-Macia, Daniel & Korosteleva, Julia, 2025. "Tracing productivity growth channels in the UK," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    10. Terranova, Roberta & Turco, Enrico M., 2022. "Concentration, stagnation and inequality: An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 569-595.
    11. Daniel L. Bennett, 2021. "Local economic freedom and creative destruction in America," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 333-353, January.
    12. Hie Joo Ahn, 2023. "The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the duration of unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 3-23, January.
    13. Domenico Delli Gatti & Roberta Terranova & Enrico Maria Turco, 2024. "Industrial Policy in Times of Market Power," CESifo Working Paper Series 11544, CESifo.
    14. Cockx, Bart & Desiere, Sam, 2024. "Labour costs and the decision to hire the first employee," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    16. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2017. "Capital Misallocation and Secular Stagnation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Baslandze, Salomé & Argente, David & Hanley, Douglas & Moreira, Sara, 2020. "Patents to Products: Product Innovation and Firm Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 14692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Eeckhout, Jan & Weng, Xi, 2024. "The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    19. Aigerim Yergabulova & Dinara Alpysbayeva & Venkat Subramanian, 2023. "Wage dispersion and firm performance: evidence from Kazakhstan," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 425-448, July.
    20. Akcigit, Ufuk & Akgunduz, Yusuf Emre & Cilasun, Seyit Mumin & Ozcan-Tok, Elif & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2020. "Facts on business dynamism in Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.