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Welfare Programs and Crime Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • David Jinkins
  • Elira Kuka
  • Claudio Labanca

Abstract

Research on the social safety net examines its effects on recipients and their families. We show that these effects extend beyond recipients’ families. Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we study a Danish policy that cut welfare benefits for refugees, increasing crime among affected individuals. Linking refugees to neighbors, we find increased crime among non-Danish neighbors, with spillovers persisting even after direct effects stabilize. Accounting for these spillovers raises the marginal value of public funds by 20%. We explore several mechanisms and find evidence consistent with peer effects among young individuals from the same country of origin.

Suggested Citation

  • David Jinkins & Elira Kuka & Claudio Labanca, 2025. "Welfare Programs and Crime Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 33926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33926
    Note: LE LS PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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