Do Vaping Taxes Tip the Scale? The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxation on Obesity

A large literature documents that quitting cigarette smoking may lead to weight gain because nicotine is an appetite suppressant and metabolic stimulant. However, researchers in this literature emphasize that the health benefits of smoking cessation exceed the harms from the weight typically gained. New products, such as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), that deliver nicotine with a lower health risk than combustible cigarettes could conceivably alter this tradeoff in favor of nicotine use. Accordingly, this study asks whether a leading policy tool to curb ENDS use – ENDS taxes – has the unintended consequence of causing weight gain. We find that, despite reducing nicotine vaping, ENDS taxes lead to robust reductions in weight and body mass index among female teens. A one-dollar (per mL of e-liquid) increase in the ENDS tax rate (2023$) leads to a 0.8-1.0 percentage-point decline in the probability that a female youth is obese. For male teens and both female and male adults, the estimated impacts are generally smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. An investigation of mechanisms reveals possible explanations for the absence of weight gain from ENDS taxes. The first is ENDS-tax-induced substitution to cigarettes, which offsets reductions in nicotine consumption from ENDS. The second is indirect effects on weight-related behaviors, including reductions in alcohol and marijuana use and increased healthier food consumption.