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Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Assets

Author

Listed:
  • Mark A. Aguiar
  • Manuel Amador
  • Doireann Fitzgerald

Abstract

This note addresses whether and when a trade war that imposes balanced trade (or even zero trade) can be consistent with initial non-zero net foreign asset positions. Using a bilateral trade model, we exploit insights from the classic literature on the Transfer Problem to characterize when gross asset or liability positions and tariff policies generate an endogenous terms-of-trade effect that ensures the value of assets and liabilities balance. As long as gross positions denominated in different goods differ in sign, there exists a continuum of bilateral tariff policies that ensure balanced trade and that satisfy the contractual financial obligations. If the new terms-of-trade do not reverse the initial direction of trade, balanced trade is consistent with non-zero exports and imports. In general, high enough bilateral tariffs lead to an autarkic outcome where no trade occurs and the net foreign asset positions rebalance to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark A. Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Doireann Fitzgerald, 2025. "Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Assets," NBER Working Papers 33743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33743
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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