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Can Housing Policy Raise Birth Rates? Lessons from Federal Mortgage Programs During the Baby Boom

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa J. Dettling
  • Melissa Schettini Kearney

Abstract

The widespread decline in births has raised questions about what governments might do to increase aggregate birth rates. This paper studies the mid-20th century introduction of federally backed mortgages to examine whether housing policy can raise birth rates. Using newly digitized data and exogenous variation in loan supply, we find that the introduction of federally backed mortgages led to a meaningful increase in births. Supplementary analyses suggest that the intervention led to an earlier age of homeownership, first marriage, and first birth, and ultimately to higher completed fertility. This provides new evidence that large-scale demand-side housing policies can be pro-natalist.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa J. Dettling & Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2025. "Can Housing Policy Raise Birth Rates? Lessons from Federal Mortgage Programs During the Baby Boom," NBER Working Papers 33446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33446
    Note: CH DAE LS ME PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellou, Andriana & Cardia, Emanuela & Lewis, Joshua, 2025. "From Bust to Boom: The Great Depression and Women's Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 18120, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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