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Forced Displacement, the Perpetuation of Autocratic Leaders, and Development in Origin Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Cabra-Ruiz
  • Sandra V. Rozo
  • Maria Micaela Sviatschi

Abstract

How does forced displacement shape development in origin countries? We examine the case of Venezuela, where over seven million people have been forcibly displaced. Our study compares municipalities with different proportions of foreign-born populations before and after the international oil price shocks that accelerated forced displacement between 2014 and 2019. Our findings show that municipalities with higher foreign-born populations in 1990, exhibiting greater out-migration from Venezuela after 2014, experienced lower economic development and higher inequality. We shed light on a novel mechanism: forced displacement facilitates the perpetuation of autocratic leaders, further hindering development. It does so by weakening the opposition’s voices and facilitating the expansion of organized crime and illicit sources of income.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Cabra-Ruiz & Sandra V. Rozo & Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2024. "Forced Displacement, the Perpetuation of Autocratic Leaders, and Development in Origin Countries," NBER Working Papers 33131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33131
    Note: DEV POL
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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

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