How Substitutable Are the Classical and Radical Right?

Over the last two decades, a new generation of right-wing parties and leaders has emerged worldwide. A central question is how substitutable voters perceive these parties to be relative to the classical right. We address this question using a quasi-natural experiment from Spain’s 2023 general election. Due to a last-minute candidate withdrawal, the radical right (Vox) could not run in one constituency. This unexpected event, unrelated to economic or ideological fundamentals, allows us to estimate the effects of radical right parties on electoral outcomes. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that the classical right captured 82.9% of the radical right vote. The radical right’s absence also slightly increased the vote share for left-wing parties and nearly doubled protest voting. These effects are stronger in high-unemployment areas, suggesting that the classical and radical right are less likely to be viewed as substitutes there. Additional analyses using survey data corroborate our findings.