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Sticky Discount Rates

Author

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  • Masao Fukui
  • Niels Joachim Gormsen
  • Kilian Huber

Abstract

We show that firms’ nominal required returns (i.e., discount rates) are sticky with respect to expected inflation. Sticky discount rates generate distinct theoretical predictions that are broadly consistent with stylized empirical patterns: increases in expected inflation directly raise real investment; demand shocks generate investment-consumption comovement; and the sensitivity of investment to interest rates is low. Sticky discount rates imply monetary non-neutrality, even when all other prices are flexible, because of a direct link from expected inflation to investment. In the New Keynesian optimal monetary policy problem, the central bank steers long-run inflation expectations, even in response to temporary shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Masao Fukui & Niels Joachim Gormsen & Kilian Huber, 2024. "Sticky Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 32238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32238
    Note: AP CF EFG IFM IO ME PR
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John R. Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 1975-2049, August.
    2. Iván Werning, 2015. "Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 21448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Auclert, Adrien & Rognlie, Matthew & Souchier, Martin & Straub, Ludwig, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel," CEPR Discussion Papers 16198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 295-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," NBER Working Papers 29841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Känzig, Diego R. & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "Capital and income inequality: An aggregate-demand complementarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 154-169.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yoichi Ueno, 2024. "Japan's Economy and Prices over the Past 25 Years: Past Discussions and Recent Issues," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-14, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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