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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Oleg Itskhoki
  • Dmitry Mukhin

Abstract

We develop a general policy analysis framework for an open economy that features nominal rigidities and financial frictions giving rise to endogenous PPP and UIP deviations. The efficient allocation can be implemented with monetary policy closing the output gap and FX interventions eliminating UIP deviations. When the “natural” real exchange rate is stable, both goals can be achieved solely by monetary policy that fixes the exchange rate — an open-economy divine coincidence. More generally, optimal policy features a managed float/crawling peg complemented with FX forward guidance and macroprudential accumulation of FX reserves, in line with the “fear of floating” observed in the data. Capital controls are not necessary to achieve the frictionless allocation, but they facilitate the extraction of rents in the currency market. Constrained unilateral policies are not optimal from the global perspective, and international cooperation features a complementary use of FX interventions across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2023. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 31933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31933
    Note: EFG IFM ME
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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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