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Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index: A New Employment Series for the US, Canada, and the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Ufuk Akcigit
  • Raman Singh Chhina
  • Seyit M. Cilasun
  • Javier Miranda
  • Eren Ocakverdi
  • Nicolas Serrano-Velarde

Abstract

Small and young businesses are essential for job creation, innovation, and economic growth. Even most of the superstar firms start their business life small and then grow over time. Small firms have less internal resources, which makes them more fragile and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. This suggests the need for frequent and real-time monitoring of the small business sector’s health. Previously this was difficult due to a lack of appropriate data. This paper fills this important gap by developing a new Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index that focuses on the smallest of small businesses with at most 9 workers in the US and the UK and at most 19 workers in Canada. The Index aggregates a sample of anonymous QuickBooks Online Payroll subscriber data (QBO Payroll sample) from 333,000 businesses in the US, 66,000 in Canada, and 25,000 in the UK. After comparing the QBO Payroll sample data to the official statistics, we remove the seasonal components and use a Flexible Least Squares method to calibrate the QBO Payroll sample data against official statistics. Finally, we use the estimated model and the QBO Payroll sample data to generate a near real-time index of economic activity. We show that the estimated model performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Additionally, we use this analysis for different regions and industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ufuk Akcigit & Raman Singh Chhina & Seyit M. Cilasun & Javier Miranda & Eren Ocakverdi & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2023. "Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index: A New Employment Series for the US, Canada, and the UK," NBER Working Papers 31350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31350
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan Goldschlag & Javier Miranda, 2020. "Business dynamics statistics of High Tech industries," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 3-30, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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