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Non-Fundamental Flows and Foreign Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe E. Aldunate
  • Zhi Da
  • Borja Larrain
  • Clemens Sialm

Abstract

Frequent, yet uninformed, fund flows in Chilean pension plans generate substantial trading in currency markets due to the high allocation to international securities. These non-fundamental flows have a significant impact on the Chilean peso, which is estimated to have a relatively low price elasticity of 0.81. Hedging by the banking sector propagates the price pressure to currency forward markets and results in violations of the covered interest rate parity. Using trading data and bank balance sheet data, we confirm that regulatory requirements and banks’ risk bearing constraints create limits of arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe E. Aldunate & Zhi Da & Borja Larrain & Clemens Sialm, 2022. "Non-Fundamental Flows and Foreign Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 30753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30753
    Note: AG AP CF PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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