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The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes Over time. U.S. Reforms and Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Margherita Borella
  • Mariacristina De Nardi
  • Michael Pak
  • Nicolo Russo
  • Fang Yang

Abstract

While “’Tis impossible to be sure of any thing but Death and Taxes” Bullock (1716), the structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reforms since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples and singles to show that the various tax regimes that we estimate imply very different labor market and saving behavior. These findings stress the importance of studying and modeling tax changes over time and across groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Michael Pak & Nicolo Russo & Fang Yang, 2022. "The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes Over time. U.S. Reforms and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 30725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30725
    Note: EFG PE
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    Cited by:

    1. João Tovar Jalles & Georgios Karras, 2023. "Tax Progressivity and Output: Evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers REM 2023/0293, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. David Sturrock, 2023. "Wealth and welfare across generations," IFS Working Papers W23/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni Violante & Lichen Zhang, 2023. "More Unequal We Stand? Inequality Dynamics in the United States, 1967–2021," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 235-266, October.
    4. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante & Lichen Zhang, 2023. "More Unequal We Stand? Inequality Dynamics in the United States 1967–2021," NBER Working Papers 31486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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