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The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing

Author

Listed:
  • Rohan Kekre
  • Moritz Lenel

Abstract

We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U.S. holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility; U.S. external adjustment; and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2021. "The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 29238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29238
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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