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The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing

Author

Listed:
  • Rohan Kekre
  • Moritz Lenel

Abstract

We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U.S. holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility; U.S. external adjustment; and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2021. "The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 29238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29238
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    2. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Cheng, Feiyang & Zhao, Xuankai, 2022. "Three channels of monetary policy international transmission: Identifying spillover effects from the US to China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Jursa, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2025. "From the core to the European periphery: Spillover effects of financial cycles," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Martin Bodenstein & Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Nils M. Gornemann & Ignacio Presno & Andrea Prestipino & Albert Queraltó & Andrea Raffo, 2023. "Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 1381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2025. "International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(672), pages 2567-2577.
    6. Ozge Akinci & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers," Staff Reports 1016, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Abdullah Alsadan & Hassan Alalmaee & Chokri Zehri & Wissem Ajili Ben Youssef, 2025. "Global financial fragmentation under raised geopolitical risk," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-32, July.
    9. Caldara, Dario & Ferrante, Francesco & Iacoviello, Matteo & Prestipino, Andrea & Queralto, Albert, 2024. "The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 127-152.
    10. Yu, Wenbo, 2024. "Consumption, exchange rate, and external adjustment during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Wenxin Du & Ritt Keerati & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege," International Finance Discussion Papers 1427, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 191-241.
    13. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2343, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    15. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Sergio Florez-Orrego & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger & Ziwen Sun & Serdil Tinda, 2024. "Global Capital Allocation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 623-653, August.
    18. repec:osf:socarx:5s6n3_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling & Ye, Jing, 2023. "Precious metal as a safe haven for global ESG stocks: Portfolio implications for socially responsible investing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Song, Jian & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2025. "How does foreign economic policy uncertainty affect domestic analyst earnings forecasts?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    21. Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Du, Wenxin & Keerati, Ritt & Schreger, Jesse, 2025. "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege," SocArXiv 7u9kn_v1, Center for Open Science.
    23. Christoph Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2024. "Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock," NBER Working Papers 32636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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