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Predicting Nursing Home Utilization Among the High-Risk Elderly

  • Alan M. Garber
  • Thomas E. MaCurdy
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    This paper explores the influence of various characteristics on nursing home utilization. It examines a targeted population of elderly individuals whose poor health and lack of social supports were expected to lead to heavy use of long-term care. We develop an empirical framework based on a transition probability model to describe the frequency and duration of nursing home admissions. Using longitudinal data on the high-risk elderly enrollees of the National Long-Term Care Demonstration ("Channeling" demonstration), we. find that a small set of characteristics distinguish individuals who are likely to be heavy utilizers of nursing homes from low utilizers. The factors associated with a high likelihood of institutionalization are not identical to the health characteristics associated with high mortality; for example, the likelihood of death increases with age, but nursing home utilization does not, when functional status and other characteristics are held constant. A somewhat healthier population might have used nursing homes more heavily than the Channeling participants, whose nursing home utilization was limited by high mortality.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2843.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2843.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1989
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    Publication status: published as Issues in the Economics of Aging, ed. David A. Wise, University of Chicago Press, 1990, pp. 173-200
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2843
    Note: AG HE
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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