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Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA data

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  • Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

In the 2018 comprehensive update of the national income and product accounts, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released not seasonally adjusted data, and modified its seasonal adjustment procedures. I find some indication of residual seasonality in the seasonally adjusted data as published before this update. The evidence for residual seasonality is weaker in the seasonally adjusted data after the update. I also directly seasonally adjusted the aggregate not seasonally adjusted data, and this entirely avoids residual seasonality. The average absolute difference between my seasonally adjusted real GDP data and the current official published version is 1.1 percentage points in quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA data," NBER Working Papers 24895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24895
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    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    2. Bagaynikov, Mikhail, 2014. "Land aspect in the development of individual agricultural farms of the Baikal region [Земельный Аспект В Развитии Индивидуальных Аграрных Хозяйств Байкальского Региона]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 195-207.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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