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Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

I investigate whether countries that use unconventional monetary policy (UMP) experience export booms. I use a popular gravity model of trade which requires neither the exogeneity of UMP, nor instrumental variables for UMP. In practice, countries that engage in UMP experience a drop in exports vis-á-vis countries that are not engaged in such policies, holding other things constant. Quantitative easing is associated with exports that are about 10% lower to countries not engaged in UMP; this amount is significantly different from zero and similar to the effect of negative nominal interest rates. Thus, there is no evidence that countries have gained export markets through unconventional monetary policy; currency wars that have been launched have also been lost. UMP is also associated with a comparable drop in imports and exchange rates, suggesting that countries engage in UMP when they are experiencing adverse macroeconomic shocks concurrent with those that eviscerate international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2018. "Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports," NBER Working Papers 24817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24817
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    Cited by:

    1. Kris James Mitchener & Kirsten Wandschneider, 2024. "Currency Wars and Trade," NBER Working Papers 33313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2025. "The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    4. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    5. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-698, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Cuadros, Ana & Martín-Montaner, Joan & Paniagua, Jordi, 2019. "Migration and FDI: The role of job skills," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 318-332.
    7. Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2020. "Trade law and trade flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 681-704, March.
    8. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? On the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264095, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Ana Cuadros & Antonio Navas & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Moving ideas across borders: Foreign inventors, patents and FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3652-3678, December.
    10. David KRIZEK & Josef BRCAK, 2021. "Support for export as a non-standard Central Bank policy: foreign exchange interventions in the case of the Czech Republic," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 191-218, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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