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Are Reference Points Merely Lagged Beliefs Over Probabilities?

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  • Ori Heffetz

Abstract

What explains the mixed evidence from laboratory tests of Kőszegi and Rabin’s (2006 and later) model of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences? We investigate one hypothesis: to become (behavior-affecting) reference points, probability beliefs have to sink in—being merely lagged, as the theory requires, is not sufficient. Past experiments with conflicting findings exogenously endowed subjects with beliefs that were equally lagged, but possibly unequally sunk-in. In four experiments, whose designs replicate past KR-nonsupporting experiments, we add new sink-in manipulations that endow individuals with additional, visual/physical probability impressions. Our findings are more KR-supporting in an endowment-effect setting but not in an effort-provision setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ori Heffetz, 2018. "Are Reference Points Merely Lagged Beliefs Over Probabilities?," NBER Working Papers 24721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24721
    Note: AG LE
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    Cited by:

    1. Biljana Meiske, 2021. "Productivity Shocks and Conflict," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2021-18, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    2. Cédric Argenton & Xiaoyu Wang, 2023. "Litigation and settlement under loss aversion," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 369-402, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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