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Global Energy Outlook 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Richard G. Newell
  • Yifei Qian
  • Daniel Raimi

Abstract

This paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and inter-governmental organizations based on methods from “Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges” (Newell and Qian 2015). These projections agree that global energy consumption growth in the coming 25 years is likely to be substantial, with the global demand center shifting from Europe and North America to Asia, led by China and India. Most projections show energy demand growing as much or more in absolute terms to 2040 than previous multi-decade periods, although the rate of growth will be slower in percentage terms. Total consumption of fossil fuels grows under most projections, with natural gas gaining market share relative to coal and oil. The North American unconventional gas surge has expanded to tight oil more rapidly than anticipated, with implications for global oil markets that are still unfolding. Renewable electricity sources are also set to expand rapidly, while the prospects for nuclear power are more regionally varied. Global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise under most projections and, unless additional climate policies are adopted, are more consistent with an expected rise in average global temperature of close to 3°C or more, than international goals of 2°C or less.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Newell & Yifei Qian & Daniel Raimi, 2016. "Global Energy Outlook 2015," NBER Working Papers 22075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22075
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22075.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:6:p:1511-:d:151696 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alessandro Spiganti & David Comerford, 2017. "The Carbon Bubble: Climate Policy in a Fire-sale Model of Deleveraging," 2017 Meeting Papers 734, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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