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A portfolio-choice model to analyze the recent gross capital flows between Canada and the US

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Abstract

We calibrate a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous portfolio choice and valuation effects to discuss the determinants of the increase in Canadian Net Foreign Assets with the US observed after 2012. Furthermore, we discuss the shocks that may explain the “reversed two-way” capital flows pattern recently characterizing the Canada-US asset trading: Canada has a negative position on bond holdings owned by US investors while a positive balance emerges on its equity holdings from US firms. The combination of a global technology shock, the US fiscal contraction, an adverse wage-push shock in the US and the greater monetary stimulus in the US than in Canada (QE) provide insights to describe the recent capital flows between Canada and the US. Both the QE and the negative wage-push shock in the US play a crucial role as explanatory factors through substantial valuation effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Casares Polo & Alba Del Villar, 2019. "A portfolio-choice model to analyze the recent gross capital flows between Canada and the US," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1901, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:1901
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    Keywords

    US-Canada capital flows; portfolio choice model; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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