IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mrq/wpaper/2010-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Predictive Power of Labor-Market Indicators of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Nourzad, Farrokh

    () (Department of Economics Marquette University)

Abstract

This paper examines two different measures of wages as predicators of prices in a vector error-correction framework using quarterly data for the U.S. for the period from 1947.Q1 through 2008.Q1. Based on cointegration and a series of exogeneity tests, it is found that: 1) there is a stable, long-run relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (PCED) on the one hand and unit labor costs (ULC) and average earnings per unit of output (AHE) on the other; 2) ULC is weakly exogenous for both price indices while the two price indices are weakly exogenous for AHE; 3) ULC is strongly exogenous for CPI but not for AHE; 4) ULC is super exogenous for CPI. Taken together, these findings lead to the conclusion that ULC is a reliable indicator of price inflation but productivity-adjusted hourly earnings is not. Thus monetary policymakers are justified in using information about the behavior of ULC in formulating policy actions for achieving the goal of price stability.*This research has been financed in part by a grant from the Center for Global and Economic Studies at Marquette University.**A short version of this paper is forthcoming in Applied Economics Letters.

Suggested Citation

  • Nourzad, Farrokh, 2010. "Assessing the Predictive Power of Labor-Market Indicators of Inflation," Working Papers and Research 2010-10, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2010-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://epublications.marquette.edu/econ_workingpapers/10
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Switch to Near-Rational Wage-Price Setting Behaviour: The Case of United Kingdom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(35), pages 127-148, may.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unit labor cost; cointegration; vector error correction; exogeneity; Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2010-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrew G. Meyer). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomuus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.