The Distributional Effects of Renewable Energy, a Plant-level Analysis

In recent years,fossil fuel power plants have increasingly adjusted their operations to balance variability in renewable output. These balancing activities alter plant emissions in ways that may not be evenly distributed. We capture the distribution of the effect of exogenous wind and solar variation on emissions from criteria pollutants across fossil fuel plants. Most plants experience a small reduction in emissions in response to variation in renewable output. However, a minority of outlier plants change their emissions output significantly, with responses that maybe either positive or negative. Positive emissions responses are driven by increases in fuel intensity or emissions rates for some plants, particularly in response to solar variation. We find that outlier plants are more likely to be in smaller Balancing Authorities, without access to electricity markets, and with higher shares of wind and solar output. The socioeconomic characteristics of communities hosting outlier power plants depend on whether the plant is wind- or solar-responsive. Notably, communities with higher asthma incidence, which are more sensitive to pollution, experience the most extreme negative emissions responses to wind, but the most extreme positive emissions responses to solar.