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Beating the Random Walk in Central and Eastern Europe by Survey Forecasts

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  • Anna Naszódi

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of survey data on exchange rate expectations with multiple forecast horizons. The survey forecasts are on the exchange rates of five Central and Eastern European currencies: Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu and Slovakian Koruna. First, different term-structure models are fitted on the survey forecasts. Then, the forecasting performances of the fitted forecasts are compared. The fitted forecasts for the 5 months horizon and beyond are proved to be significantly better than the random walk on the pooled data of the five currencies. The best performing term-structure model is the one that assumes an exponential relationship between the forecast and the forecast horizon, and has time-varying parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Naszódi, 2011. "Beating the Random Walk in Central and Eastern Europe by Survey Forecasts," MNB Working Papers 2011/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2011/3
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2011-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Naszodi, Anna, 2011. "Exchange rate dynamics under state-contingent stochastic process switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 896-908, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    evaluating forecasts; exchange rate; survey forecast; time-varying parameter; term-structure of forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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