IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mie/wpaper/467.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting U.S. Trade in Services

Author

Listed:
  • Alan V. Deardorff

    (University of Michigan)

  • Saul H. Hymans

    (University of Michigan)

  • Robert M Stern

    (University of Michigan)

  • Chong Xiang

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

This paper provides a set of forecasts of United States international trade in services, both at the aggregate level and for four subcategories. These sectors are: travel, which is mostly tourist expenditures; passenger fares, which is mostly passenger air transportation; transportation, other than passenger transportation; and other private services, including education, financial services, insurance, telecommunications, and business, professional and technical services. A forecasting model is constructed and estimated, based on conventional economic forces of supply and demand, dependent on cost variables and income variables as well as relative prices. For forecasting purposes, these variables are taken from the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy, a macroeconomic forecasting model with forecasts provided regularly by the University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. The equations of the services trade model are reported and discussed, and the performance of the estimated equations is evaluated. The quarterly forecast paths are provided for both aggregate and sectoral services trade, including exports and imports, through the end of 2001. Results indicate that imports will continue to rise over the forecast period, while exports, after remaining nearly stationary for several quarters in some sectors in 1999, will resume their rise thereafter. This forecasting work is to be continued, and it is suggested, in addition, that future research would be useful to explore the determinants of the production and sales of foreign services affiliates of U.S. parent companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan V. Deardorff & Saul H. Hymans & Robert M Stern & Chong Xiang, 2000. "Forecasting U.S. Trade in Services," Working Papers 467, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers451-475/r467.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abhijit Das & Rashmi Banga & Dinesh Kumar, 2011. "Global Economic Crisis : Impact and Restructuring of the Services Sector in India," Trade Working Papers 23225, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Adusei Poku, Eugene & Broni-Pinkrah, Samuel & Effah Nyamekye, Gabriel, 2016. "Modelling and assessment of the effect of income on service exports in Ghana," MPRA Paper 72312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kamath, Kishore & Paul, Varun, 2011. "Understanding recent developments in UK external trade," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(4), pages 294-304.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Services; International Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (FSPP Webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/riumius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.