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Socio-political and economic determinants of de facto monetary institutions and inflationary outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Carmignani

    () (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Emilio Colombo

    () (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Patrizio Tirelli

    () (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a model where in°ation, a measure of de facto central bank independence and an index of de facto exchange rate regime are simultaneously determined by a set of economic, political and institutional variables. De facto central bank independence is hampered by socio-political turbulence and bene¯ts from the balance of powers between the executive and the parliament. In°ation is explained by de facto central bank independence, by the level and volatility of public expenditure and by the de facto exchange rate regime. Openness (real and ¯nancial) a®ects in°ation through the ex- change rate regime channel. Success in controlling in°ation, in turn is crucial to sustain central bank independence and exchange rate stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2007. "Socio-political and economic determinants of de facto monetary institutions and inflationary outcomes," Working Papers 107, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:107
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    File URL: http://dems.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper107.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the (de)stabilising role of government size," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 781-790.
    2. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infation; central bank independence; exchange rate regime; system estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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