Preferences for in-place and relocated living among climate-vulnerable communities in Fiji: a discrete choice experiment

Climate change is forcing difficult choices between in-place adaptation and relocation for Pacific Island communities, yet policy responses often rely on participatory planning frameworks that privilege louder voices or implicitly assume a consensus of preferences. We surveyed 476 adults across 25 at- risk Fijian villages using a discrete choice experiment to understand how individuals evaluate trade- offs between alternative future living arrangements, including location, services, housing, income opportunities, climate risk, and cultural connection. Our analysis identifies three distinct preference types—movers, stayers, and adapters—with sometimes conflicting priorities. While movers and adapters are generally willing to relocate to climate-resilient locations, stayers prefer to remain in their existing villages even in the absence of significant adaptation investment. These divergent preferences reveal relocation and in-place adaptation as spatially constrained and contested choices. Uncoordinated household-level decisions by movers and adapters risk redistributing rural populations across to urban centres and fragmenting communities. Preservation of connection to community and place may therefore require deliberate coordination and compromise at the community level, including the design of new climate-resilient settlements that accommodate the preferences of stayers. Recognising heterogeneous preferences and the limits of consensus-based participation is essential for designing community adaptation pathways that are socially, culturally, and spatially just and acceptable.