Land Use Planning to Mitigate Climate Change in the Greater Golden Horseshoe: An Analysis of Potential Scenarios

This paper assesses the potential effects of housing development on regional greenhouse gas emissions in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe. Using models of different development scenarios based on household vehicle kilometres travelled and energy use, we evaluate the impacts of different forms of new housing production on greenhouse gas reduction targets and suggest housing and land use best practices and policy approaches. We model core scenarios of development from 2023 to 2030 that reflect current debates on housing development and land use planning in the region that include Build as Usual (on-going intensification); All-Sprawl (under recent policy changes); and four alternatives: Business as Usual, Moderate, Limited, and No Sprawl. Our findings suggest that aggressive intensification would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 26 percent, with particularly significant and compounding effects to be expected over the long term. We conclude that progressive land use planning and other mechanisms by the provincial, regional, and municipal orders of government that reduce the emissions generated by buildings, preserve open space that provides critical carbon sequestration, and reduce vehicle miles travelled, should be aggressively strengthened to build on progress made under the Province’s Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.