Black Gold & Fool’s Gold: Speculation in the Oil Futures Market
This paper addresses the question of whether the oil price spike of 2003-2008 was a bubble. We document and discuss what is known about the level of speculation in the paper oil market. We then analyze the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices, both during the earlier period of 1985-2002 and during the spike. The dynamics of the term structure changed in important ways during this latter period, and we explain how this may have contributed to generating a bubble. We also explain how this answers the puzzle of the lack of accumulating above-ground inventories. Finally, we discuss the implications for regulatory reform of the paper oil markets.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 77 Massachusetts Ave. (Building E40-279), Cambridge, MA 02139-4307|
Phone: (617) 253-3551
Fax: (617) 253-9845
Web page: http://tisiphone.mit.edu/RePEc
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:0913. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sharmila Ganguly)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Sharmila Ganguly to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.