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Modelling the Age Dynamics of Chronic Health Conditions: Life-Table-Consistent Transition Probabilities and their Application

Author

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

We derive transition probability matrices for chronic health conditions using survey prevalence data. Matrices are constructed for successive age groups and the sequence represents the “age dynamics” of the health conditions for a stationary population – the probabilities of acquiring the conditions, of moving from one chronic conditions state to another, and of dying. One can simulate the life path of a cohort under the initial probabilities, and again under altered probabilities to explore the effects of eliminating a particular condition or reducing its mortality probabilities. We report the results of such simulations and note the general applicability of the methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2011. "Modelling the Age Dynamics of Chronic Health Conditions: Life-Table-Consistent Transition Probabilities and their Application," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 448, McMaster University.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:448
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep448.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank T Denton & Byron G Spencer, 2016. "Immigration And The Rate Of Population Mixing: Explorations With A Stylized Model," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-13, McMaster University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chronic health conditions; transition probabilities; age dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other

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