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Inflation Expectations and a Conservative Central Banker: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Moritz Grebe

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Peter Tillmann

    (Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, Germany)

Abstract

This paper studies the response of inflation expectations to an exogenous shift in central bank preferences. We use the unexpected announcement of the resignation of Jens Weidmann, the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, in 2021 as a natural experiment constituting a rare case of an exogenous shift in the composition of the ECB’s Governing Council. As a member of the Governing Council, he was a known policy hawk and a vocal critic of the ECB’s asset purchases. Our evidence from survey data suggests that the news about the resignation causes a strong increase in individual inflation uncertainty of German households and a significant fall in the level of trust in the ECB. The effect on the mean inflation expectations remains inconclusive. Thus, the shift in policy preferences has a strong effect on second moments, while the first moment effect remains weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and a Conservative Central Banker: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202525, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202525
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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