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The 2015/2016 New Year's Eve Cologne Event and Anti-refugee Crimes in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamad Alhussein Saoud

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

Abstract

During New Year's Eve 2015/2016, the German city of Cologne witnessed mass sexual assaults and thefts by perpetrators described as having an Arab-African appearance. This paper studies whether the event in Cologne led to a backlash in crimes against refugees in Germany. Difference-in-differences regressions reveal a significant jump in anti-refugee crimes immediately after the event. This rise is driven by assaults and miscellaneous crimes and is more pronounced in North Rhine-Westphalia (where Cologne is located), in wealthier counties, in counties with a higher share of refugees, and in the counties that had a refugee reception center. The immediate rise in anti-refugee crimes is also higher in counties where a higher share of German suspects has been involved in crimes against foreign victims. Regarding longer-term repercussions, I find evidence for an anniversary effect a year later, i.e., a rise in anti-refugee crimes after the next New Year’s Eve.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamad Alhussein Saoud, 2025. "The 2015/2016 New Year's Eve Cologne Event and Anti-refugee Crimes in Germany," FEMM Working Papers 25001, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:mag:wpaper:25001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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