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Un modèle intégré de la demande totale d'énergie. Application à la province de Québec

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  • Bernard, Jean-Thomas

Abstract

À cause du cadre réglementaire et des politiques gouvernementales qui s'appliquent à la demande d'énergie, celle-ci a reçu beaucoup d'attention de la part des développeurs de modèles. Dans cet article, je présente un modèle intégré de la demande totale d'énergie. Les principaux déterminants sont les prix relatifs des sources d'énergie (charbon, électricité, gaz naturel et pétrole), le niveau d'activité économique, la formation des ménages et la température. Des effets dynamiques permettent à la demande de s'ajuster dans le temps. Ce modèle économétrique est appliqué à trois secteurs de l'économie québécoise : résidentiel, commercial et industriel. L'échantillon va de 1970 à 1997. La présentation des résultats fait ressortir les rôles joués par les élasticités-prix et revenus de court et de long terme. Ce modèle est d'usage facile pour fin de simulation et de prévision et des exemples sont présentés tout en fournissant des indicateurs de performance en tant qu'outil de prévision.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard, Jean-Thomas, 2001. "Un modèle intégré de la demande totale d'énergie. Application à la province de Québec," Cahiers de recherche 0102, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:0102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. François Dupuis & Benoit Durocher & Claude Montmarquette & Maryse Robert, 2006. "Le redressement de la situation fiscale au Québec / Le redressement de la situation fiscale au Québec," CIRANO Project Reports 2006rp-06, CIRANO.
    2. François Dupuis & Benoit Durocher & Claude Montmarquette & Maryse Robert, 2006. "Rectifying Québec's fiscal situation," CIRANO Project Reports 2006rp-07, CIRANO.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modèle de demande d'énergie; Substitution entre sources d'énergie;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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