IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/luc/wpaper/11-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the GARCH Structural Credit Risk Model Make a Difference?

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Lehnert
  • Xisong Jin
  • Francisco Nadal de Simone

    (LSF)

Abstract

In this study, we empirically investigate and evaluate various approaches to structurally assess credit risk using a panel of European banking groups. We consider not only the standard approaches in the literature, but also include models that allow the asset volatility to be stochastic and models that allow for short- and long-term components of default risk. Models are evaluated by comparing their ability to correctly and timely identify changes in risk indicators. Surprisingly, we find that the GARCH structural credit risk model, despite its more sophisticated modeling approach, typically underperforms more basic models. Importantly for macro-prudential policy, the combined Merton/GARCH-MIDAS model performs best and reflects important market events earlier than the other approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Lehnert & Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal de Simone, 2011. "Does the GARCH Structural Credit Risk Model Make a Difference?," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-6, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:11-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wwwen.uni.lu/content/download/56106/665288/file/Does%20the%20GARCH%20Structural%20Credit%20Risk%20Model%20Make%20Difference%20(6).pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal de Simone, 2011. "Market- and Book-Based Models of Probability of Default for Developing Macroprudential Policy Tools," BCL working papers 65, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Credit Risk Models; GARCH; Risk Management; Merton Model; Heston-Nandi Model; Macro-prudential Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:11-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martine Zenner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfsculu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.