IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/liu/liucec/2025-19.html

Adaptive agent-based modeling in finance : selected applications

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Esposito

Abstract

Since its inception, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has faced persistent challenges, as numerous anomalies - such as volatility clustering, excessive trading volumes, and herding behaviour - exposed gaps between theoretical predictions and actual market dynamics. In response, economists developed alternative frameworks that relaxed EMH’s strict assumptions, distinguishing between different types of investors (e.g., “chartists†and “fundamentalists†) and incorporating bounded rationality, learning, and adaptation. This line of research gave rise to agent-based models, which conceptualize financial markets as adaptive ecosystems and rely on simulations to capture investor interactions and the evolution of trading strategies. This paper reviews central modelling choices - such as the definition of investor heterogeneity, the specification of preferences, the mechanisms of price formation, and the processes of strategy selection - and discusses their implications for balancing realism with the complexity of calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Esposito, 2025. "Adaptive agent-based modeling in finance : selected applications," LIUC Papers in Economics 2025-19, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
  • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:2025-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.biblio.liuc.it/wp/wp19/wp19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    3. William F. Sharpe, 2010. "Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(3), pages 45-59, May.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    5. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    6. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    7. Deneubourg, J. L. & Aron, S. & Goss, S. & Pasteels, J. M., 1987. "Error, communication and learning in ant societies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 168-172, June.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    9. Kirman Alan & Teyssière Gilles, 2002. "Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 287-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 2010. "“Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies”: Author Response," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(5), pages 13-14, September.
    12. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kusen, Alex & Rudolf, Markus, 2019. "Feedback trading: Strategies during day and night with global interconnectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 438-463.
    2. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006, pp.1109-1186," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Jia-Ping Huang & Yang Zhang & Juanxi Wang, 2023. "Dynamic effects of social influence on asset prices," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 671-699, July.
    4. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    6. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Maximilian Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2020. "SABCEMM: A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 707-744, February.
    7. Emily J. Huang, 2015. "The role of institutional investors and individual investors in financial markets: Evidence from closed‐end funds," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 1-11, September.
    8. Ming Pu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Seow Ong, 2012. "Heterogeneous Agents and the Indifference Pricing of Property Index Linked Swaps," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 543-569, May.
    9. Li, Wei & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2010. "Daily institutional trades and stock price volatility in a retail investor dominated emerging market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 448-474, November.
    10. Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January.
    11. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agents Models: two simple examples, forthcoming In: Lines, M. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamical Systems in Economics, CISM Courses and Lectures, Springer, 2005, pp.131-164," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    12. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    13. Meng, Rujing & Wong, Kit Pong, 2010. "Multinationals and futures hedging: An optimal stopping approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 13-25.
    14. Cars Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models: Two Simple Case Studies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-055/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    16. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2015, January-A.
    17. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 581-601, July.
    18. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Max Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2018. "SABCEMM-A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Papers 1801.01811, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    19. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:2025-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Ballestra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/liuccit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.