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Carbon Intensity, Productivity, and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Soroosh Soofi-Siavash

    (Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius University)

  • Emanuel Moench

    (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)

Abstract

The carbon intensity of U.S. output has experienced a secular decline in recent decades. Using an agnostic identification approach we show that news about future total factor productivity explain the bulk of longrun variation in emission intensity. News about green technologies give rise to similar dynamics. Both innovations precede a persistent increase of output and TFP. Yet, they are associated with only a temporary decline of emissions, followed by a hump-shaped rebound. New technologies have thus been a key driver of growth in recent decades but have not permanently reduced emissions. We discuss the Economic underpinnings of this rebound effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Soroosh Soofi-Siavash & Emanuel Moench, 2023. "Carbon Intensity, Productivity, and Growth," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 115, Bank of Lithuania.
  • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:115
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon emissions; carbon intensity; news shocks; structural vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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