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Bayesian Population Dynamics of Spreading Species

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Dragicevic

    (Chaire Forêts pour Demain AgroParisTech – Office National des Forêts)

Abstract

The invasion by the spreading species is one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Despite a number of empirical and theoretical studies, there is still no general model about why or when settlement becomes invasion. The purpose of this work is to test a model of Bayesian population dynamics relying on best-response strategies that could help in resource management and bioeconomic modeling. Given the species survival probability, our static game unveils a breaking-level probability in mixed-strategies, where it is in the interest of exotic species to invade and in the interest of native species to resist. In dynamic setting, we introduce a stochastic version of the balance equation based on conditional probabilities. When the species survival probability and the availability of resources in the ecosystem are respectively high and low, the dynamics shows that the rebalancing of subpopulations operates at a high pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Dragicevic, 2013. "Bayesian Population Dynamics of Spreading Species," Working Papers - Cahiers du LEF 2013-03, Laboratoire d'Economie Forestiere, AgroParisTech-INRA, revised Feb 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:lef:wpaper:2013-03
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    File URL: http://www6.nancy.inra.fr/lef/Cahiers-du-LEF/2013/2013-03
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bioeconomics; best-responses; balance equation; Bayesian population dynamics; biodiversity; invasive species.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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