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A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

Listed author(s):
  • Torben Tranæs

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Nils Groes

    (AKF, Institute of Local Government Studies, Denmark)

  • Anders Holm Larsen

    (AKF, Institute of Local Government Studies, Denmark)

We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the "strength" in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 93-03.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1993
Publication status: Published in: Labour, 1994, 8(2) pp 317-30
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9303
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