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A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education


  • Torben Tranæs

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Nils Groes

    (AKF, Institute of Local Government Studies, Denmark)

  • Anders Holm Larsen

    (AKF, Institute of Local Government Studies, Denmark)


We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the "strength" in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben Tranæs & Nils Groes & Anders Holm Larsen, 1993. "A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education," Discussion Papers 93-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9303

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    More about this item


    labour demand by education; distribution of education by industry; forecasting labour demand by education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search


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