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Economic Crises and Unemployment: Success Stories and Policy Options

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  • Sumru Öz

    () (Koc University)

Abstract

Türkiye’nin 2001 krizinden sonra maruz kaldýðý iktisadi dalgalanmalarda aþaðý yönlü katýlýk gösteren iþsizlik sorununa karþý, 1970’lerde arka arkaya gelen petrol fiyatý þoklarýna baðlý ekonomik krizlerden sonra benzer bir sorunu yaþayan geliþmiþ Avrupa ekonomileri için geliþtirilen politikalardan yararlanýlabilir. Bu farklý politika seçenekleri yanýnda küresel kriz öncesinde yaþadýklarý kendi ekonomik krizlerinin ardýndan artan iþsizlik oranlarýný -en azýndan orta vadede- düþürmeyi baþarmýþ olan ülke deneyimlerinin de incelendiði bu çalýþma, Türkiye’de iþsizliði azaltmakta oldukça etkili olabilecek arz yönlü politikalar arasýnda altyapý yatýrýmlarý ve beþeri sermaye oluþumunu hýzlandýrmanýn önemine iþaret ediyor. Avrupa ülkelerine önerilen iþçi sendikalarýnýn gücünü azaltmak, ücret belirleme mekanizmalarýnda ve iþsizlik sigortasý sisteminde kýsýtlayýcý reform gibi “kurumsal” politikalarýn Türkiye’de iþe yaramasý mümkün gözükmüyor. “Sözleþmelere yönelik” politikalar arasýnda ise iþe giriþ ve iþten çýkýþ maliyetlerinin azaltýlmasý, kar paylaþýmý, istihdam vergilerinin azaltýlmasý ve düþük ücret desteði, iþe alým desteði ve uzun süreli iþsizler için sosyal yardým ödemeleri gibi önlemler Türkiye için gerekli gibi görünüyor. Türkiye’de küresel krizin ardýndan uygulamaya konulan “Ýstihdam Destek Paketi”, bu politikalardan bazýlarýný kapsamakla beraber ülke deneyimleri, etkili olabilmeleri için bu tür programlarýn kapsamýnýn geniþ tutulmasý, özellikle yoksullarý ve gençleri içine alacak þekilde hedef kitlenin iyi belirlenmesi ve etkinliðinin ölçülmesini saðlayacak adýmlarýn atýlmasý gerektiðini gösteriyor. Son olarak, Türkiye’nin de dahil olduðu yükselen ekonomilerde, hýzlý büyümeyle birlikte geliþen teknolojinin, daha eðitimli iþgücüne olan talebi artýrdýðý göz önüne alýndýðýnda, iþgücünün eðitim düzeyinin de ülkedeki teknolojik geliþmeye paralel bir þekilde artýrýlmasý gerekiyor. Bunun yolu, bir yandan mevcut vasýfsýz iþsizlere yönelik mesleki eðitim programlarý geliþtirmek, diðer yandan ise kapsamlý bir eðitim reformu ile yeni kuþaklarý günümüzün hýzlý teknolojik deðiþimine ayak uydurabilecek becerilere sahip olacak þekilde yetiþtirmekten geçiyor.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumru Öz, 2010. "Economic Crises and Unemployment: Success Stories and Policy Options," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1024, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1024
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    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1024.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    2. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 207-244.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    5. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    6. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    7. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    8. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Labor Market Policies; Economic Crisis; Human Capital;

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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